My percentage gains will drop each time I rebalance as the same absolute gain is now divided over a larger capital base. Below is the result:
Saturday 18 October 2014
Permanent Portfolio Oct 2014 Rebalancing
Due to the excess USD I got after I abandoned my "Decision Moose" strategy, I decided to buy all 4 asset classes during the latest round of re-balancing. Of course, the majority of the fund is used to buy Gold, which has not seen any recovery thus far.
My percentage gains will drop each time I rebalance as the same absolute gain is now divided over a larger capital base. Below is the result:
My percentage gains will drop each time I rebalance as the same absolute gain is now divided over a larger capital base. Below is the result:
Friday 10 October 2014
Market crystal ball gazers
In today's Sunday Times (5th Oct 2014), there is an article interviewing professionals about their outlook on the different asset classes. Well I thought it would be interesting to note down their views and see how the real scenario will pan out towards the end of the year. Well, here goes...
UOB Asset Management chief investment officer for equities and multi-assets, Mr John Doyle:
" Given the cyclical pickup in demand, we are overweight on the technology sector, which continues to benefit from rising corporate expenditure and the IT upgrade cycle that has been suppressed so far due to prior uncertainties"
"Mr Doyle is most bullish on US stocks and neutral on Asian markets."
"Singapore market will likely remain range-bound in the quarter ahead"
OCBC Investment Research head, Carmen Lee:
"As such, for the Singapore market,..., we expect the typical year end lull period to persist"
In addition, OCBC Bank economist Barnabas Gan gold price will drop further for the rest of the year while Mr Lim Say Boon, chief investment officer of group wealth management and private banking, believes gold "is likely to be trapped sideways over coming months"
For the fun of it, I'll give my take: Equities worldwide, especially the US market will suffer a drop and gold will rebound. I'll revisit these predictions towards the end of the year.
UOB Asset Management chief investment officer for equities and multi-assets, Mr John Doyle:
" Given the cyclical pickup in demand, we are overweight on the technology sector, which continues to benefit from rising corporate expenditure and the IT upgrade cycle that has been suppressed so far due to prior uncertainties"
"Mr Doyle is most bullish on US stocks and neutral on Asian markets."
"Singapore market will likely remain range-bound in the quarter ahead"
OCBC Investment Research head, Carmen Lee:
"As such, for the Singapore market,..., we expect the typical year end lull period to persist"
In addition, OCBC Bank economist Barnabas Gan gold price will drop further for the rest of the year while Mr Lim Say Boon, chief investment officer of group wealth management and private banking, believes gold "is likely to be trapped sideways over coming months"
For the fun of it, I'll give my take: Equities worldwide, especially the US market will suffer a drop and gold will rebound. I'll revisit these predictions towards the end of the year.
Friday 12 September 2014
Why pick individual stocks?
From my own observation, people who pick/buy stocks do so for the following 2 reasons
This translates to a 26% in absolute gains or an internal rate of return (IRR) of 10.25% over a 6.5 year period. This is a strategy that even a high school student can execute, just buy the index every six months! No need to read annual reports, examine charts, listen to financial news, stock tips etc, and you can beat the returns of banks interest (0.05%), bonds and inflation rate (~3%).
Spreadsheet of the above calculation available here.
What I am trying to show here is that we should not belittle the returns of index investing. Yes it will be boring and takes a lot of discipline to stick with it (Even I sold of portion of my ETF recently to invest in stocks). But the above result speaks for itself.
Back to the original topic, for those of you who pick stocks, you better be sure that you are beating the returns of the index. Else you are probably "paying expenses" just to enjoy the thrill of stock picking.
- They enjoy either the thrill or promise of their stocks' prices skyrocketing, and probably can't sit back and do nothing while hearing stories from their friends how well their stocks are doing.
- They want to beat the returns of the index.
It is easy to see which group you belong to. If you belong to the 2nd group, you will know the annualised returns of your stock portfolio. Else you probably belong to the 1st group.
One possible index investing scenario
Take for example, an investor who invest 1000 shares in the SPDR STI ETF every 6 months, and he started just before the financial crisis in 2008, which is around May 2008. Thereafter, the index dropped by a whopping 50%.
Taking into accounts of dividends payout (which is not re-invested) and excluding commission charges, the result as of September 12th 2014 is as follows:
| Total capital invested | $40,730 |
| Portfolio Value + Dividends | $51,319 |
| Profit | $10,589 |
This translates to a 26% in absolute gains or an internal rate of return (IRR) of 10.25% over a 6.5 year period. This is a strategy that even a high school student can execute, just buy the index every six months! No need to read annual reports, examine charts, listen to financial news, stock tips etc, and you can beat the returns of banks interest (0.05%), bonds and inflation rate (~3%).
Spreadsheet of the above calculation available here.
What I am trying to show here is that we should not belittle the returns of index investing. Yes it will be boring and takes a lot of discipline to stick with it (Even I sold of portion of my ETF recently to invest in stocks). But the above result speaks for itself.
Back to the original topic, for those of you who pick stocks, you better be sure that you are beating the returns of the index. Else you are probably "paying expenses" just to enjoy the thrill of stock picking.
Saturday 30 August 2014
Portfolio Restructuring
Over the past few months, there has been some changes to my investment portfolio mainly due to a need for cash in the near future.
I stick to the following allocation for my liquid assets:
Say if I have $50,000 in invested amount, I will target to have at least another $25,000 in opportunity fund plus at least 6 months' worth of my monthly expenses.
Morgan Housel has this plan to deploy the opportunity fund which I think is a good guide to follow:
Earlier this month, I have also fully liquidated all my unit trusts and slowly sold some of my STI ETF to meet my asset allocation requirement. In addition, the reallocation involves increased investment in individual stocks for higher potential returns.
I also stopped the Decision Moose strategy sometime in July. As I only invested a very small amount in it, I find that the time and effort spent to track and monitor its performance is not worth it.
The fully divested unit trust portfolio performance over the past 2+ years has a CAGR of 5.98%. Nothing fantastic about it.
As of now, I am left with the following investment holdings:
I stick to the following allocation for my liquid assets:
Say if I have $50,000 in invested amount, I will target to have at least another $25,000 in opportunity fund plus at least 6 months' worth of my monthly expenses.
Morgan Housel has this plan to deploy the opportunity fund which I think is a good guide to follow:
The last 10% drop in STI occurred earlier in January this year, and the next one might happen sometime end of this year.
Earlier this month, I have also fully liquidated all my unit trusts and slowly sold some of my STI ETF to meet my asset allocation requirement. In addition, the reallocation involves increased investment in individual stocks for higher potential returns.
I also stopped the Decision Moose strategy sometime in July. As I only invested a very small amount in it, I find that the time and effort spent to track and monitor its performance is not worth it.
The fully divested unit trust portfolio performance over the past 2+ years has a CAGR of 5.98%. Nothing fantastic about it.
As of now, I am left with the following investment holdings:
- A basket of stocks consisting of REITS, STI ETF and companies listed both local and overseas for both growth and dividend yield.
- Permanent Portfolio made up of US ETFs.
Saturday 26 July 2014
Permanent Portfolio Jul 2014 Update
The gains of my Permanent Portfolio has breached 10% mark for the first time in July due to the rally of bonds, and made possible by my previous 2 rounds of buying this asset class at depressed prices.
One of the wonders of this strategy is that you can buy asset classes at depressed prices and still sleep soundly at night. I can comfortably ignore news regarding when US will cut its bond-buying programme, rising interest rates etc.
Performance chart shown below is in USD terms, with cash dividends after deducting the 30% witholding tax taken into account. (All 3 asset classes except Gold pays dividends)
One of the wonders of this strategy is that you can buy asset classes at depressed prices and still sleep soundly at night. I can comfortably ignore news regarding when US will cut its bond-buying programme, rising interest rates etc.
Performance chart shown below is in USD terms, with cash dividends after deducting the 30% witholding tax taken into account. (All 3 asset classes except Gold pays dividends)
Wednesday 30 April 2014
Security Selection
In one of the first few posts of this blog, I highlighted the superiority of "Asset Allocation" compared to "Market Timing" and "Security Selection".
The reason against Security Selection is that most of us, myself included aren't half as good as Warren Buffet, who has a flair for analysing businesses. However, during the start of this year, I began investing in specific companies again, as I believe I have found a group of people who can analyse companies with reasonable success and accuracy.
My first encounter with this group/company was around 2011 where I attended one of their preview talks with a friend. As both of us were still studying back then, we did not have much capital to enter into their programme. Fast forward to 3 years later in early 2014, we happen to meet this group in another investment talk by chance, and they were talking about the same strategies they told us back then. The advantage we have of course, is that we were able to verify if those companies they identified 3 years back did well today. The answer is a definite yes. So during this talk, we decided to invest in additional companies mentioned by them, justified both by quantitative and qualitative reasons.
In April, both my friend and I finally decided to enter into their programme to learn their methods of analysing companies. Personally, the methods used can be found generally in Value Investing books/websites. However, the more important reason is to have access to the list of companies they themselves are evaluating, from which I can make my own decisions based on their analysis. Most of us simply to not have the time to do to filter quality companies ourselves.
As of now, I have stopped my monthly contribution to unit trusts to accumulate my opportunity fund. Will "sell in May and go away" situation arise this year? Seriously... no one knows.
The reason against Security Selection is that most of us, myself included aren't half as good as Warren Buffet, who has a flair for analysing businesses. However, during the start of this year, I began investing in specific companies again, as I believe I have found a group of people who can analyse companies with reasonable success and accuracy.
My first encounter with this group/company was around 2011 where I attended one of their preview talks with a friend. As both of us were still studying back then, we did not have much capital to enter into their programme. Fast forward to 3 years later in early 2014, we happen to meet this group in another investment talk by chance, and they were talking about the same strategies they told us back then. The advantage we have of course, is that we were able to verify if those companies they identified 3 years back did well today. The answer is a definite yes. So during this talk, we decided to invest in additional companies mentioned by them, justified both by quantitative and qualitative reasons.
In April, both my friend and I finally decided to enter into their programme to learn their methods of analysing companies. Personally, the methods used can be found generally in Value Investing books/websites. However, the more important reason is to have access to the list of companies they themselves are evaluating, from which I can make my own decisions based on their analysis. Most of us simply to not have the time to do to filter quality companies ourselves.
As of now, I have stopped my monthly contribution to unit trusts to accumulate my opportunity fund. Will "sell in May and go away" situation arise this year? Seriously... no one knows.
Wednesday 9 April 2014
How long should you take to repay your CPF housing loan
I chanced upon an interesting article in one of the blogs I follow, ASSI. The argument is that you should take your time to repay your housing loan.
The example used is a $100,000 HDB loan. Say you have $100,000 in your CPF account, should you pay the full $100,000 loan in one shot or take 10 years to repay it fully?
Take 10 years to pay (amortization)
The monthly repayment will be $947.25. Assuming your monthly CPF OA contribution is this amount for the next 10 years., your CPF will not have any net loan deduction for this 10 year period. The ending CPF balance at the end of 10 years is $126,877.
The total interest paid is $13,670
Empty your CPF account and pay the full loan amount of $100,000
You decided to save on the interest payment of $13,670 and pay the full amount upfront. The blogger argument against this method is that although you save $13,760 in interest payment, you would forgo the $28,008 that you would have accumulated if you pay the loan over 10 years.
Well, I found out the last point is not entirely true. Even after you have emptied your CPF account. You CPF ending balance is $126,638, which is almost the same if you have not paid one lump sum in the beginning. Details of the calculation is shown in this spreadsheet.
The example used is a $100,000 HDB loan. Say you have $100,000 in your CPF account, should you pay the full $100,000 loan in one shot or take 10 years to repay it fully?
Take 10 years to pay (amortization)
The monthly repayment will be $947.25. Assuming your monthly CPF OA contribution is this amount for the next 10 years., your CPF will not have any net loan deduction for this 10 year period. The ending CPF balance at the end of 10 years is $126,877.
The total interest paid is $13,670
Empty your CPF account and pay the full loan amount of $100,000
You decided to save on the interest payment of $13,670 and pay the full amount upfront. The blogger argument against this method is that although you save $13,760 in interest payment, you would forgo the $28,008 that you would have accumulated if you pay the loan over 10 years.
Well, I found out the last point is not entirely true. Even after you have emptied your CPF account. You CPF ending balance is $126,638, which is almost the same if you have not paid one lump sum in the beginning. Details of the calculation is shown in this spreadsheet.
Sunday 6 April 2014
OCBC 360 savings account
I couldn't believe it when I saw the advertisement for this savings account offered OCBC. You get 3.05% interest p.a. on up to $50k of the amount in your savings account.
For those who wonder if 3.05% is high, consider the following,
For those who wonder if 3.05% is high, consider the following,
- Matches close to the average inflation rate in Singapore. It's no longer valid to say that your savings get eroded away due to inflation by leaving it in the bank.
- Higher than all the time deposits' interest that I know of, has no lock-in period and requires a minimum balance of just $3000 (the fall below fee is even waived for the first year).
- Interest is close to the dividend yield of the STI index.
- Matches some of the high grade corporate bonds. A recent example is Capitamall Trust bond which was 2.8 times oversubscribed, has a 3.08% coupon payment, and maturity period of 7 years.
- The interest rate is risk-free, as the first $50k deposit is guaranteed by the Singapore Deposit insurance Corporation (SDIC).
- Credit at least $2000 of your salary monthly
- Spend $400 on OCBC cards monthly
- Pay any 3 bills online monthly
If you meet the above 3 requirements, it's a no brainier to open this account immediately. I wonder how long such a good deal will last.
Friday 21 March 2014
Permanent Portfolio Mar 2014 Update
Next month, it'll be the time again to re-balance my own implementation of Permanent Portfolio. I wanted to create a chart showing the performance of my own strategy. However, using Net Asset Value (NAV) of the portfolio can't work as it will keep increasing whenever I increase my investment amount during re-balancing.
After much thought, I feel the best way is to present it in the form of percentage gain/loss over time. The drawback is that additional investment will cause the percentage gain/loss to decrease, as the same absolute gain/loss amount is divided by a larger portfolio value. However, I couldn't think of a better alternative.
Anyway below is the chart updated till 14th March 2014:
I started this strategy around June 2012 and re-balance the portfolio amount every month until Oct 2012, when I decided to just balance once every 6 months, i.e. April and and October every year.
It is close to 2 years now and as shown by the red line above, it is kind of boring. I suppose the strategy will only start to outperform when it goes through a full financial cycle, i.e. stocks drop and gold/bonds rises (hopefully) in value. I'm patiently waiting...
After much thought, I feel the best way is to present it in the form of percentage gain/loss over time. The drawback is that additional investment will cause the percentage gain/loss to decrease, as the same absolute gain/loss amount is divided by a larger portfolio value. However, I couldn't think of a better alternative.
Anyway below is the chart updated till 14th March 2014:
I started this strategy around June 2012 and re-balance the portfolio amount every month until Oct 2012, when I decided to just balance once every 6 months, i.e. April and and October every year.
It is close to 2 years now and as shown by the red line above, it is kind of boring. I suppose the strategy will only start to outperform when it goes through a full financial cycle, i.e. stocks drop and gold/bonds rises (hopefully) in value. I'm patiently waiting...
Sunday 2 March 2014
Market Timing by Decision Moose
A few weeks back, I revisited a website which I had forgotten about. The website advocates investing in any one of the 9 asset classes through ETFs at any one time. The website tells you what and when to buy and switch among the 9 different asset classes. The ETFs are listed on the NYSE and they are:
The historical record of this strategy speaks for itself here. I decided to invest a small amount buying European equity (IEV) after the website recommended a switch on 7th February 2014.
I have to reiterate that for a hassle-free way of investing, buying low cost index funds (ETFs) on a long term basis is the way to go. However, it is very boring process. Hence, I am also trying out different strategies like Unit Trusts (keeping transaction costs to a minimum), Permanent Portfolio, and this Market Timing method by Decision Moose. And maybe five to ten years down the road, will ditch the lowest performing strategies.
- Cash or Money Market Fund
- Long-term zero coupon Treasury Bonds (EDV)
- Large cap US Stocks (SPY)
- Small cap US Stocks (IWM)
- Gold Bullion (GLD)
- Europe 350 Stocks (IEV)
- Latin America 40 Stocks (ILF)
- Japan stocks (EWJ)
- Asia Pacific ex-Japan stocks (AXJL)
The historical record of this strategy speaks for itself here. I decided to invest a small amount buying European equity (IEV) after the website recommended a switch on 7th February 2014.
I have to reiterate that for a hassle-free way of investing, buying low cost index funds (ETFs) on a long term basis is the way to go. However, it is very boring process. Hence, I am also trying out different strategies like Unit Trusts (keeping transaction costs to a minimum), Permanent Portfolio, and this Market Timing method by Decision Moose. And maybe five to ten years down the road, will ditch the lowest performing strategies.
Warren Buffet's Annual Letter 2013
In Warren's Buffet's latest Annual Letter to his shareholders, he has an advice for the non-professional investors who are not equipped with the skill to evaluate businesses, and that is to invest in low cost S&P500 index fund (a.k.a. ETF). He also mentioned that in his will, the cash entrusted to a trustee for his wife is to be 90% invested in a S&P500 index fund, and the remaining 10% in short term government bonds.
To the ordinary people who have not started investing, it could not be any simpler to just invest in an index fund, be it the local STI ETF (minimum cost of $320) listed on the Singapore stock exchange or a Vanguard S&P500 ETF (minimum cost of USD100) listed in the New York Stock Exchange. This is ultimately what Warren Buffet is doing also.
To the ordinary people who have not started investing, it could not be any simpler to just invest in an index fund, be it the local STI ETF (minimum cost of $320) listed on the Singapore stock exchange or a Vanguard S&P500 ETF (minimum cost of USD100) listed in the New York Stock Exchange. This is ultimately what Warren Buffet is doing also.
Saturday 25 January 2014
Tracking your investment portfolio performance Pt 2
As it is important to track your own portfolio in CAGR terms, I shall explain the process of how you can do it using excel's XIRR function. Will use the example below to illustrate.
The first column is quite self-explanatory, the date of transaction. Column B represents the cashflow from your own perspective, i.e. an investment means a cash outflow (negative), and a withdrawal or cash dividend collected represents a cash inflow (positive).
The last row is to be updated with today's date, and the market value of the entire portfolio's current valuation, i.e. the money you were to get if you sell everything you have. This has to be done whenever you want to compute your CAGR. For the example, the formula would be =XIRR(B2:B6,A2:A6).
This will give you 14.2% return, from the profit of $150 made in the year.
If you are trading in other currencies say USD, you would similarly track you SGD cash outflow and inflow into a USD trading account. At the end of the day, the SGD market value would be the sum your stocks' USD value and the trading account USD balance multiply by today's exchange rate.
The process is definitely tedious. You can either continue to "act blur" with regards to your own true investment performance or get down to calculating it.
I tracked the performance of the my 3 portfolios mentioned in my previous post, wanting to see how each of them perform in a time period of 5 years. I used the STI as a rough gauge of their performance. It is to be noted that this is not an apple-to-apple comparison, as my own portfolio consists of regular investment over the period stated, whereas the STI performance is based on one lump sum investment at the beginning of the period.
I have 3 different spreadsheets tracking each of their performance. To compute the overall portfolio performance, just need to copy them into one spreadsheet and sort the first column by date. A superb spreadsheet for tracking stocks can be found here.
Stocks Portfolio
28 Apr 2008 till 20 Jan 2014
Unit Trust Portfolio
09 May 2012 till 20 Jan 2014
| A | B | C | |
| 1 | Date | Cashflow | Type |
| 2 | 1-Jan-14 |
-$1,000
|
Invest |
| 3 | 1-Jun-14 |
-$500
|
Invest |
| 4 | 1-Jul-14 |
$50
|
Dividend |
| 5 | 1-Aug-14 |
$500
|
Withdrawal |
| 6 | 31-Dec-14 |
$1,100
|
Today's Market Value |
The first column is quite self-explanatory, the date of transaction. Column B represents the cashflow from your own perspective, i.e. an investment means a cash outflow (negative), and a withdrawal or cash dividend collected represents a cash inflow (positive).
The last row is to be updated with today's date, and the market value of the entire portfolio's current valuation, i.e. the money you were to get if you sell everything you have. This has to be done whenever you want to compute your CAGR. For the example, the formula would be =XIRR(B2:B6,A2:A6).
This will give you 14.2% return, from the profit of $150 made in the year.
If you are trading in other currencies say USD, you would similarly track you SGD cash outflow and inflow into a USD trading account. At the end of the day, the SGD market value would be the sum your stocks' USD value and the trading account USD balance multiply by today's exchange rate.
The process is definitely tedious. You can either continue to "act blur" with regards to your own true investment performance or get down to calculating it.
I tracked the performance of the my 3 portfolios mentioned in my previous post, wanting to see how each of them perform in a time period of 5 years. I used the STI as a rough gauge of their performance. It is to be noted that this is not an apple-to-apple comparison, as my own portfolio consists of regular investment over the period stated, whereas the STI performance is based on one lump sum investment at the beginning of the period.
I have 3 different spreadsheets tracking each of their performance. To compute the overall portfolio performance, just need to copy them into one spreadsheet and sort the first column by date. A superb spreadsheet for tracking stocks can be found here.
Stocks Portfolio
28 Apr 2008 till 20 Jan 2014
| STI Absolute Gain/Loss | -4.2% |
| Personal Stock Portfolio CAGR | 6.3% |
Unit Trust Portfolio
09 May 2012 till 20 Jan 2014
| STI Absolute Gain/Loss | 6.1% |
| UT Portfolio CAGR | 4.0% |
Permanent Portfolio
12 June 2012 till 20 Jan 2014, based on USD/SGD exchange rate of 1.268
12 June 2012 till 20 Jan 2014, based on USD/SGD exchange rate of 1.268
| STI Absolute Gain/Loss | 10.4% |
| PP Portfolio CAGR | 3.4% |
Overall CAGR: 5.65%
It's be interesting to see how each of the 3 CAGRs compare 3 to 4 years down the road.
It's be interesting to see how each of the 3 CAGRs compare 3 to 4 years down the road.
Friday 24 January 2014
Tracking your investment portfolio performance
Investor A made an investment if $100,000 on a stock a year ago and of today, its value stands at $110,000, a paper profit of $10,000.
Similarly, Investor B made an investment of $1,000 on the same stock a month ago and of today, its value stands at $1,010, a paper profit of $10.
The question is whose investment performance is better? Investor A who made a profit of $10,000 or Investor B who made a profit of $10? The answer is Investor B, who has an annualised gain of 12% vs investor A, who has an annualised gain of only 10%.
Yes, the Compounded Annualised Growth Rate (CAGR) should be the yardstick by which we measure our investment portfolio performance, just like what the finance industry does. This is contrary to the majority, who would just tabulate how much profit/loss one makes from stock A in a certain year, stock B in another year etc in absolute value or percentage terms. Using the example above, Investor A would tell others he is standing on a profit of $10,000 or had a 10% Return On Investment (ROI) on that particular stock. His "performance" would definitely sound better than that of investor B, where in fact he is not the better of the two.
The reason you need to measure your portfolio performance by CAGR is so you can compare it easily against the performance of other financial instruments. If your CAGR for the past 10 years is say 5%, you might as well sell everything and invest purely in STI ETF which gives you annualised gains of about 5-8% depending on which time frame you are looking at.
I will elaborate how to track your portfolio's CAGR in the next post, which needs to account for buy sell transactions, dividends, foreign exchange effects if applicable. It's a rather tedious process but absolutely necessary if you want to know how well you do relative to the market.
Similarly, Investor B made an investment of $1,000 on the same stock a month ago and of today, its value stands at $1,010, a paper profit of $10.
The question is whose investment performance is better? Investor A who made a profit of $10,000 or Investor B who made a profit of $10? The answer is Investor B, who has an annualised gain of 12% vs investor A, who has an annualised gain of only 10%.
Yes, the Compounded Annualised Growth Rate (CAGR) should be the yardstick by which we measure our investment portfolio performance, just like what the finance industry does. This is contrary to the majority, who would just tabulate how much profit/loss one makes from stock A in a certain year, stock B in another year etc in absolute value or percentage terms. Using the example above, Investor A would tell others he is standing on a profit of $10,000 or had a 10% Return On Investment (ROI) on that particular stock. His "performance" would definitely sound better than that of investor B, where in fact he is not the better of the two.
The reason you need to measure your portfolio performance by CAGR is so you can compare it easily against the performance of other financial instruments. If your CAGR for the past 10 years is say 5%, you might as well sell everything and invest purely in STI ETF which gives you annualised gains of about 5-8% depending on which time frame you are looking at.
I will elaborate how to track your portfolio's CAGR in the next post, which needs to account for buy sell transactions, dividends, foreign exchange effects if applicable. It's a rather tedious process but absolutely necessary if you want to know how well you do relative to the market.
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