Financial News Anecdote (Part II)

As I read the local Straits Times almost daily, it is not hard to come across articles giving forecast and some months later, read another conflicting forecast. Thanks to the internet age, digging up those old articles isn't that difficult.

Read Financial News with a pinch of salt...

(Part One can be found here)

Singapore REITS

Straits Times article headlined "S is for sour in S-Reit returns, says new report", (22 Jul 2015)
The views in this article are by OCBC Investment Research. The article talks about pending interest rate rise, high debt levels of REITS, and falling DPU growth, all of which will lead to loss of capital. Adding in dividends, the total returns will be close to zero. It also advocates "reallocation into high-end developers and real estate players" that are fundamentally sound.

Fast forward 6+ months later..
Straits Times article headlined "S-Reits are safe havens amid uncertainty: DBS", (5 Feb 2016)
S-Reits have outperformed the STI index and and real estate developers YTD. Their debt levels are  "manageable", and trading at "attractive valuations" They are expected to continue their "firm" performance in the near future.

China retail outlook

Straits Times article headlined "In China, online retail spells death for malls", (18 Sep 2015)

The booming e-commerce scene is putting pressure on China retail malls, exacerbated by the high supply of retail space coming into the market. Vacancy rates of the malls are rising all over the country. The article did provide a glimmer of hope at the last paragraph, saying the urbanisation should support the consumption growth.

Straits Times article headlined  "China's consumers leading the way up?" (4 Feb 2016)

There is a switch from an industry-led to a consumer-led economy in China. Retail sales are up 11% in December 2015. Foreign firms like Starbucks and McDonalds are poised to ride on the growth