I have invested in the (modified) Permanent Portfolio for slightly over 3 years now. And I'm considering abandoning it.
Don't get me wrong, it is not that I am giving up or that I no longer believe it works. It is because I have found another strategy that should give even higher returns.
Even if the Permanent Portfolio works as it should, it generates an average compounded returns of 9%. However, the other strategy generates 15% returns, based on backtested data as well.
As this strategy involves investing in US equities as well, and currently, the US market is at the 3rd highest CAPE ratio in the 130-year history (27.1 at time of writing), I am waiting for a correction to happen before I make the final decision. If that happens, I can also see for myself what happens to my Permanent Portfolio.
I'll wait...
for the 15% strategy, are you doing options? I can't imagine aother almost passive strategy than permanemt portfolio can generate 15% pa without using leverage instrument. Can share your strategy?
ReplyDeleteIt is based on Tobais Carlise book "Deep Value". The list of Large Cap Stocks are available free on www.acquirersmultiple.com. Do note that past performance is not indicative future outcome. Backtest results: http://acquirersmultiple.com/2015/01/large-cap-1000-stock-screen-backtest/
ReplyDelete